After a short-lived cease-fire by the Ethiopian government - in all fairness an under-hand tactic – the ENDF is now fighting alongside allied militia/paramilitaries from across Ethiopia. Although the Abiy administration publicly stated that they would be tentatively following the situation in the border areas of Tigray and its contiguous states, ill-trained/equipped recruits are now engaging the TDF.
The ENDF leadership has hopes of reconstituting its limping units by bringing in militias from the different regions of Ethiopia. Simply meshing these militia groups into one fighting unit and prodding them on to fight the TDF.
So far, the Oromia regional state has contributed some ten thousand of its regional special force to the cause of halting the TDF's advance into Afar and Amhara states. The youngest state within the Federation – the Sidama – with a population of just under three million, has contributed more than two hundred of its very best Special Forces and law enforcement personnel. Other states in the Federation have also chipped in with thousands of men and women, unsure if they're ready to die in a totally unnecessary war.
The Afar police are now fully engaging the TDF from Chercher all the way east to Mille; BBC journalist Martin Plaut tweeted: 'Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae in a phone call on Friday: Engagement on the road from Chercher to Mille inside Afar region was successful. The TDF can move swiftly to control the Addis Ababa-Djibouti road and will be in a position to accept humanitarian assistance directly.'
According to the general, the TDF's drive due east into Afar seems to be successful. So far, eastern Afar has been taken over by the TDF. And if they plan on controlling or severing the Djibouti-Ethiopia highway and railway, the impression given by general Tsadkan and Getachew Reda is that it could happen soon.
Caught off guard
After TDF seized Mekelle and most towns in Tigray, many analysts and observers had been dreadfully anticipating heavy mobilization towards the south and west Tigray. The Amhara leadership quickly fortified annexed territories - mainly western Tigray; prolonging the siege by preventing vital corridors for humanitarian assistance and other crucial aid. The Amhara state leadership's desperation for preserving these territories ultimately came to bite them in their behinds.
Spectacularly, the TDF did not go west towards Humera; instead, they went south and east. Occupied territories due south of Maychew were now firmly in the sights of the TDF – with the ENDF and Amhara militias poised for another round of heavy clashes.
But contrary to predictions, most of southern Tigray was taken under control by the over-powering TDF, with little to no fighting. The towns of Korem, Alamata, Waja and Bala were taken within a few days in an operation dubbed "wefri Adetat Tigray."
But the TDF didn't halt their advances at the provincial borders of Tigray. Instead, they went further south. And to the east, the unsuspecting Afar state heads were just about holding out even with additional reinforcements from Oromia and southern states.
Debark
A new central front has been opened in central Tigray (Maekelay Zoba) facing Debark and Gonder. Reports of heavy fighting on border areas were reported this week. Adi Arkay, a woreda located in North Gonder, and Chewber are now under TDF control.
TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda wrote on Twitter, "Abiy Ahmed's war machine is, essentially, destroyed. What was little left of his regular army has been destroyed or in disarray in engagements in Afar, NorthernWollo, and northern Gondar yesterday and today. The last strongholds in Qobo, AdiArqay, and Chewber have been broken. Period!"
Just south of those towns is Debark. Debark is a woreda inside the northern Gonder administrative zone and the nearest city to the Semien mountains, a rugged terrain with the highest concentration of high altitude mountains in Ethiopia, which makes for a brutal battle for both sides.
Rapid campaign for TDF?
As things are unfolding quite unpredictably and given the fluidity of the situation, observers will be keen on the new battlefronts. These recent engagements are intense as the TDF are now armed with heavy artillery, and the Amhara militias are backed by the federal and other ill-trained /equipped armies.
The Amhara state heads have stepped up their recruitment of young people of fighting age and called on the 'nations and nationalities of Ethiopia' to fight against the 'terrorist TPLF clique.'
On the other hand, TDF fighters are now growing in confidence and in number. After capturing the capital in June, Reuters showed videos of young Tigrayans marching towards a local school to sign up for military training. They would eventually join up with the fighting once they have finished basic political and military training.
Even though current circumstances point to a swift claim of Addis Ababa by the TDF, we will have to wait and see how the culmination of the current phase of the war. Maybe Abiy and his party will finally throw in the towel and sit down for a genuinely negotiated cease-fire, or the Tigrayans will out-maneuver their counterparts in Arat-kilo once again, and the scenes of 1991, uncomfortably similar to some, will be relived.
These new battlefronts are crucial in deciding the outcome of the war. It wouldn't be an exaggeration to claim Ethiopia's future will be determined by the new battlefronts in north Gonder and North Wollo. All sides are exhausted, and the war is going into the final stretch.
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