Just after the turn of the Ethiopian New year, Tigrayans welcomed the New Year with open arms, hoping that the suffering would end once and for all. The previous year had been a living hell. We were glad to turn the page on one of the most challenging periods we had to endure as a society.
A few weeks ago, commanders of TDF said as much in a presser that lasted more than three hours. They took a brief lull from the fighting to address the people of Tigray. Tadesse Worede, MIgbey Haile, Hailesilassie Girmay (also known as Wedi-Embeytey), Yohannes Woldegiorgis (also known as John Medid), and Teklay Asheber (also known as Wedi-Asheber) delivered their best wishes for the coming year amidst ongoing fighting. It is important to note that these men – and their comrades- have garnered an immense level of celebrity and adoration in recent months.
It all started on November 4th, when the Ethiopian government launched an assault on the Tigray region after it accused authorities in that region of attacking an army base in an effort to seize power. But that was only the culmination of a long-standing feud between the federal government and the Tigrayan regional government.
That feud took its root in 2018, right after PM Abiy Ahmed seized power and immediately started implementing swift reforms in almost every arena. The new reform agenda was widely seen as a positive step for Ethiopia. Many touted the new prime minister as the leader of a new African generation and even earned a Nobel peace prize for making peace with neighboring Eritrea.
It was mostly smooth sailing until the new PM was forced to reckon with the country's vast political and ideological schisms. Abiy was tasked with accommodating both sides of the aisle, but he had other plans for Ethiopia. For the sake of this article, I shall jump to mid-2020, when tempers really started flaring.
After the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, Ethiopia's general elections were postponed. Which meant that the parliament's mandate would be extended until elections officially took place. The decision to delay elections didn't surprise many, as did the ensuing bumping of heads between the federal government and the TPLF. The leaders of Tigray were adamant that elections would be held in their state as scheduled, which greatly infuriated the leaders in Addis Ababa. Predictably Tigray eventually held 'elections,' much to the chagrin of Addis Ababa.
"They imperiled our democracy: They wanted to punish the people of Tigray for electing their own leaders." General Hailesilassie said, "the government of Tigray was ready to defy the federal government to protect the right to exercise democracy."
Disappointingly, leaders in Arat-kilo opted to escalate the already tense situations by denying the new Tigray government legitimacy. TPLF leaders ensured reciprocity by denying the PM's administration legitimacy for not 'holding elections in time.'
What started as a political disagreement between both parties turned into a dangerous game of one-upmanship. With each round leading to war. War finally erupted on November 4th, after PM Abiy Ahmed launched a full-scale invasion of Tigray.
Ethiopian defense forces, Eritrean forces, UAE drones, and militia groups from neighboring states were sent to annihilate the Tigrayan defense forces – then a 10000 strong police force with little to no fighting experience. It was a war of great asymmetry: fully mobilized armies fighting against the police force of a small regional state. The outcome was rather unsurprising. Arat-kilo succeeded in defeating the paltry army and instated its own puppet administration and a command post to overlook all operations within the Tigray region.
The TPLF, once the pre-eminent party which ran the show in Ethiopia for decades, was no more. All of its military assets were destroyed or seized within weeks. The leadership retread from all cities and towns to fight in the mountainous parts of Tigray. But even after the bitter taste of defeat, the Tigrayan leadership wasn't ready to hand themselves over to Arat-kilo. Instead, they launched a guerilla insurgency; they set out to reproduce the successful insurrection of the 1970s and 1980s, which brought about the end of a military dictatorship and heralded the era of national autonomy.
Megbey Haile, one of the top TDF commanders, said, "It was a challenging year for the people of Tigray. It was a struggle for autonomy, the most brutal in all of our history." Megbey Haile has recently played into the hearts of Tigrayans for his rousing speeches, cementing himself as a forefront Tigrayan nationalist.
New objective: survive
After the allied forces of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Amhara region took control of Tigray, their objectives were plain and simple: wipe out the leaders of the Tigray region. PM Abiy tasked his army to 'hold the TPLF leadership accountable' during a visit to Mekelle. PM Abiy has seen success in that regard, with the assassination of key leaders, most notably Seyoum Mesfin, Abay Tsehaye, and Asmelash Woldesellasie. Other imposing figures like Sibhat Nega and Abay Woldu have been imprisoned alongside other TPLF central committee members.
The president of the Tigray state and most of the politicians remained at large. As long as they resisted the onslaught by the allied forces, Arat-kilo couldn't unhook the tight collar around Tigray. For PM Abiy and Isaias Afeworki, the increasing threat of the insurgency forced them to keep tens of thousands of troops on the ground. They were also trying to squelch any kind of fertile ground for the resistance, hence the scorched earth policy.
Rightly, the Ethiopian and Eritrean elites suspected that the broad Tigrayan population would support the insurgency. For months innocent Tigrayans suffered at the hands of the invading forces. Civilians were murdered and tortured; Women and girls were subjected to sexual violence; Systemic destruction of private and public property.
General John Medid told the reporters, "Grave crimes were committed. Profound efforts aimed at destroying the livelihood of Tigrayans. The suffering inflicted upon the people of Tigray is unimaginable." All of the generals seemed to acquiesce; Tigray had endured unimaginable hardships during the past year. All generals decried the crimes were perpetrated to destroy the history and identity of Tigrayans.
John Medid also said that the past few months have reinforced his belief that Tigrayans are very resilient. "It makes me proud as a Tigrayan and a freedom fighter. I'm proud of the resistance the people of Tigray showed, and against all odds, in the face of all the atrocities, they defeated the enemy."
In late June, the world witnessed a significant turnaround. The insurgency proved too strong for the invading forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea as the TDF marched into most of the cities of Tigray. The Ethiopian army made their haphazard exit out of the region, while the Eritreans made a somewhat more dignified withdrawal.
"After taking back control of Tigray, we have significantly increased our capabilities. Enemy divisions have been routed while their armaments make up our arsenal." Wedi Asheber claimed.
This meant that the elected government of Tigray was restored. "Our biggest achievement thus far is that the democratically elected government has been reinstated." General Megbey Haile continued," We have gone a mighty long way to ensure the rights of the Tigrayan people in this regard."
"Except for one administrative zone, the duly elected government has assumed control of Tigray." Megbey is referring to the western part of Tigray, which remains under the control of Amhara forces. "It [withdrawal of Amhara forces from western Tigray] is non-negotiable. It is our land, and we shall free our people from unconstitutional occupation."
It's important to note here that western Tigray is the focal point for the ongoing conflict about to reach the one-year mark. After the withdrawal of the invading forces withdrew from most of Tigray, it was put under siege. No electricity, no water, no banking, no telecommunication services, and essential services like health, welfare, etc... Basically, Tigray was wholly disconnected from the world; nothing would be getting in or out of Tigray. This new development was especially worrying as hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans were on the verge of man-made starvation; They needed urgent humanitarian aid to avert a catastrophic fate that could kill hundreds of thousands if not millions.
The only way humanitarian aid can get through into Tigray without crossing distinct enemy territory is through western Tigray via Sudan. Now that west Tigray is firmly under the control of Amhara militias and regular troops, Tigray is under a complete blockade.
State of affairs
Teklay Asheber perfectly summarized the current predicament by comparing it to a set of elaborate traps. "The federal government has only one strategy: blockade the entire [Tigray] region and starve the entire population." He continued, "but we have been there. During the past few months, [ENDF and EDF] laid very intricate envelopments. We eventually penetrated through them and booted them out of Tigray."" Now only one string remains between Tigray and the outside of the world."
"We have no choice but to prevail; we have to break the blockade." Teklay Asheber
Tadesse Worede –the chief of staff of the TDF command post – said breaking the blockade is a must. He also noted that Tigrayans couldn't continue under the siege for much longer. "They're trying to starve an entire region to death. They want to see the people bow. That will never happen. They're playing with fire. In the end, it will be their demise."
All of the Generals were apparently sure of the imminent TDF victory. According to them, Tigrayans have the cause to continue fighting until their security is ensured, which is enough in itself to 'prevail against the enemy.' Tadesse Worede tried to elucidate by way of a quote from the famed Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."
The military leaders also called upon Tigrayans to unite and 'bring all resources together to win against the enemy.' The coming months will be crucial in this terrible conflict, as heavy mobilization takes place on both sides of the war.
"TDF is undertaking a series of preparations. We will defeat them. At this stage of the war, we need a high level of planning. We also have to execute those plans with the end in sight; that's why large-scale preparations are underway." Said general Teklay Asheber, sure of military victory.
2013 was the year of destruction, grave human rights violations, sexual violence, the list goes on. But for Tigrayans, there was always an optimistic hope to hold on to despite the hellish reality all around. 'Where there's a will, there's a way' is the adage that I think fits perfectly to our current predicament while looking back to where we were last year.
Millions of people are on the brink of a man-made famine; a nation of about seven million people is completely cut off from the rest of the world – all of which purposefully done by a callous group of men with an insatiable thirst for vengeance.
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