On August 18 last week, PM Abiy was host by the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan
. The two leaders signed a bilateral agreement. According to the prime minister's office in Addis Ababa, several memorandums of understanding were also signed, covering military cooperation, finance, and water resources. This has fueled reports of an arms deal (which may include highly advanced UAV combat drones).
Ethiopia and Turkey have boasted strong relations throughout the decades, especially bilateral trade, which stands at $650 million this year, according to Turkey's ambassador to Ethiopia, Yapran Alp. Turkey also boasts $2.5 billion worth of investments in Ethiopia, second only to China.
Now Ethio-Turk relations are widely expected to go one step further by establishing military ties. With the signing of bilateral relations, the Ethiopian government hopes the Turks will revamp Ethiopia's lackluster Airpower (as part of a military cooperation agreement), significantly deteriorating after months of heavy fighting in Tigray.
Ethiopia has been criticized heavily due to the conflict in Tigray, which killed thousands of civilians and has put the region on the brink of a man-made famine. But still, the Abiy administration has forged ahead with a military solution. In a bid to finally defeat the reinvigorated TPLF, the Abiy administration is trying to acquire vital Airpower in the shape of Turkish UAVs.
Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and ANKA combat drones have cemented their place as one of the highly efficient combat UAVs on the market. They have been proven in major conflict hotspots in Libya and Syria and recently in the Nagorno-Karabakh War- pitting Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkish drones were utilized against the Armenians and ultimately handed the Azeris the upper hand.
While analysts have played down talk of Turkey indulging the Abiy administration with vast military resources and military know-how, fear persists that turkey could indeed sell its advanced war machines to Ethiopia.
During the past few weeks, open-source researchers and analysts claimed that airline cargos and heavy freighters arrived at Addis Ababa international airport and Harar Meda military airport in Debrezet. According to those claims, the cargo planes departed from Tekirdag (Turkey) and Baku (Azerbaijan). A Dutch flight tracker reported planes arriving from Turkey and Azerbaijan at least on six separate occasions.
Mohajer-6
The Dutch flight tracker was also instrumental in identifying an image of a UAV sighting in Ethiopia's Afar province. In early August, with the TPLF threatening to severe the Ethio-Djibouti corridor, PM visited an airbase in Semera; Abiy made a rare excursion to the battlefront. A set of photos began to circulate on social media. Bellingcat and other independent analysts confirmed a ground control station (GTS) and a peculiar-looking plane. The plane's features were similar to that of a combat drone, but its origin wasn't immediately clear.
In the ensuing days, social media was in a frenzy as more evidence pointed to the presence of UAVs at Semera Airport. Bellingcat and other researchers effectively ruled out rumors that the drones at Semera airport had been Turkish TB-2 or Chinese wingloong. The UAVs on the Semera airport tarmac had measurements much smaller, and their shapes were quite distinct from previously touted Turkish and Chinese drones.
A glimpse of the ground control station and some low-quality images (satellite images) of the UAVs all but assure their presence - the most likely candidate being the Iranian Mohajer-6. But so far, nothing conclusive can be said of the alleged drones at Semera airport.
Bellingcat's verdict after analyzing all evidence: "What can be said on the basis of satellite imagery and photos posted on social media is that two drones were based at Semara Airport. An analysis of the shape and measurements of these drones and the footage from the drone feed provides a strong indication that these are drones consistent with the Iranian Mohajer-6, seemingly armed with air-to-ground missiles. Nevertheless, it must be stressed that higher quality imagery would be needed to state anything conclusively".
TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda alluded to the use of UAVs against the TDF in a recent interview for Tigray TV. He said that "Abiy could be seeking modern Airpower but, all effort to halt the advancing TDF will be futile. "
If indeed Ethiopia has acquired a fleet of drones, it marks a new escalation in the conflict. All armed oppositions are fighting the Ethiopian government and its allied forces, all while the international community urges all parties to find a negotiated settlement.
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