A spokesperson for the armed coalition known as TDF has claimed multiple attacks on critical Ethiopian and Eritrean military units. Spokesperson – better known by his full name, Gebre Gebretsadik - for the TDF has been actively giving updates on Dimtsi Weyane TV on the heavy fighting taking place since late last week. In addition to Gebre, many in the region report the ongoing fight in many parts of Tigray, mainly southern and central zones (zobas).
The spokesperson announced that "operation ALULA" was underway across Tigray. "After Tigray defense forces had successfully undertaken defensive operations, a large scale offense has been launched on the early hours of June 18." Operation "ALULA" – dubbed so, after the famed 19thc. Military leader – "is still progressing intensely. Our soldiers are showing great valor and bravery," he also added. TPLF official Getachew Reda, who is now in the mountains of Tigray, told Bloomberg News: "We have launched an offensive at the divisions which we believed were critical. The Ethiopian army and its allies have abandoned many towns and cities. The offensive continues".
The new offense comes after the Ethiopian government vowed to launch a "final counter-insurgency" operation in some areas of Tigray, where the "criminal clique" is operating. While Arat-kilo reportedly gave directives for significant military build-up in early June, "TDF" has gradually built its capabilities. Most crucially, the TDF has been recruiting thousands of new fighters. Recruitees join the fight from all over Tigray for apparent reasons: the mere fact that an invading soldier can kill, rape, and loot their beloved Tigray.
Where is fighting reported?
Gebre reported that TDF attacked areas where the ENDF had amassed enormous resources in Kola Tembien and Gijet. "Our forces are taking offensives against enemy troops in Yechila, Agbe, Hagere-Selam, and Abiyi-Adi." He also added that their offensive operations spanned over 100 kilometers across central Tigray.
Gijet, a town in southern Tigray and the largest settlement in the Samre district, has also seen significant fighting. According to the TDF spokesperson, multiple ENDF and EDF (Eritrean defense forces) took part in clashes around Adi-Eshir, Gijet. The 11th, 31st, 24th, 21st, 32nd, 20th, and 25th divisions from the ENDF and the 32nd and 21st divisions from their Eritrean counterparts took part in these clashes, incurring huge damages to manpower, military hardware, and logistical capabilities. As a result, areas south of Mekelle, including Bora, Neksege, Dila, and Hiwane, have fallen swiftly under TDF control. Even areas well south, Hegunbirda and Chercher near Alamata, are under TDF control. Withdrawal by the ENDF and allied forces occurred after fighting near Gereb-Agew and Adi-Qeyih (south-eastern Tigray), where the ENDF reportedly suffered 400 casualties (TMH).
Fighting was also reported at woreda Worie Lehe between TDF and the Eritrean army. The Eritrean military stationed in Adwa had received orders to support ENDF divisions fighting in Kola Tembien. But they had faced stiff resistance en route as the TDF ambushed the convoy, forcing it to turn back north to Nebelet.
Many claim that the TDF is launching similar offensives in other parts of Tigray, particularly significant towns like Adigrat, Wukro, and Agulae. Though not confirmed, Tigray defense forces had entered these cities, took over the military barracks, and made off with military hardware, artillery, and ammunition. Fighting around the B30 highway has also been reported, but that is still not confirmed.
In the coming days' operation, many expect Alula to spread to the north-central zone (zoba), where the Eritrean army has a heavy presence. Major towns and cities in the north-central include Axum, Adwa, Shire, and Shiraro, all on the B30 highway.
Heavy causalities?
While it may be the ENDF that carried the brunt of the casualties, the TDF has also incurred causalities. The Ethiopian army is guilty of a blunder: moving major army units to central Tigray, which served as the TDF's powerbase. A colossal blunder by any military measure. Military analysts have credited TDF with successfully luring the Ethiopian army units into Tembien, where they had been routed. In the early hours of June 18, 2021, Getachew Reda wrote on Twitter, "Yet another 'final' offensive is off to a bad start as their forces are being routed big time on all fronts. Enemy forces in disarray," indicating that a huge battle was underway.
Accordingly, TDF spokesperson Gebre has told DW that more than ten thousand ENDF soldiers have been killed during operation ALULA. He also added that more than 3356 soldiers had been captured as POW. Among those caught is the commander of the 11th ENDF division, Colonel Hussein. His capture and the unconfirmed reports of his command staff (field army officer, logistical staff personnel, and HR staff) killed in action have all but settled the advances into Tembien as heavy military blunders for the ENDF. Gebre also claimed that three brigades of the 32nd and 21st divisions were destroyed and two-thirds of the 24th division.
"During operation ALULA, military hardware under the enemy forces has fallen under the gallant Tigray defense forces." "TDF have raided major ENDF depots including bases in Agulae and Adi-Gudem." He gave details on the hundreds of military vehicles that were seized. Heavy artilleries: howitzers, heavy machine guns, automatic cannons, anti-aircraft cannons, and other heavy artilleries and munitions have been captured, according to Gebre Gebretsadik.
What's next?
As fighting intensifies in Tigray, the ENDF decidedly are retreating divisions all over Tigray. At the time of writing, all ENDF divisions are deployed to withstand imminent attacks by the TDF. Negash, Enda-Teka-Tesfay, and Mahibere Degue are the only major towns and villages except for Mekelle, hosting the ENDF. While it is still possible for the ENDF military hierarchy to reinforce their battered units and order them to face the TDF once again, things look grim for the Ethiopian army as morale has fallen sharply after demoralizing defeats in central zoba.
ENDF's ability to restore those units depends on recruits. From where will the ENDF renew lost military hardware and lost human resources?
It is plausible to assume the Eritreans will chip in, but will it suffice? The EDF is pretty much in control in much of north and north-western Tigray. At a time when the pressure on the Eritreans, from within Tigray and the western governments is at the highest, risky overtures into Tembien and southern Tigray to help the ENDF contain a growing army, and according to some reports, a motorized one at that. But it's still difficult to speculate whether the Eritreans will be Abiy's silver bullet once again.
On the other hand, Amhara leaders will take the situation unfolding in central Tigray much more expediently, as the fear of fighting spreading to the Amhara-Tigray border will prompt deployment of regional Amhara militias around the border area or even within Tigray.
As Abiy's "law enforcement operation" hangs by a thread and growing calls to end the fighting grow, he persists in finding a way to find a military settlement against his political opponents in Tigray and other parts of Ethiopia. Especially on Tigray, Abiy seems to be losing heavily on the battleground and is running out of options as the inevitability of a ceasefire and political settlement stares at him in the eyes.
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