On Tuesday, PM Abiy addressed the citizens of Ethiopia, an interview scheduled to air last week. Following protests from opposition political parties, the interview was broadcast on Tuesday, after the general elections. Abiy was asked about the difficulties Ethiopia is currently facing. From crippling inflation; to the upcoming elections just a few days later; to the GERD and other mega-projects, but most gravely, the situation in Tigray.
Abiy was his usual brash self, jumping from topic to topic, leaving behind slight contradictions. On multiple occasions during the interview, he severely downplayed most of the issues in Ethiopia. And in some cases, telling lies and deceiving the Ethiopian public.
Despite the exhaustive list of problems facing the horn-nation, officials in Arat-kilo still want to paint a rosy picture of the current predicament. Abiy said in his interview, "we have already passed the most difficult time, our enemies and their destructive wishes have all crumbled, now we can set our sights on eradicating poverty." It's not clear who or what the 'enemies' of the nation are.
The issues plaguing Ethiopia are very complicated. Contrary to what PP (the ruling party) officials say and write publicly, these challenges could potentially balkanize Africa's second-most populous country. But Arat-kilo hopes to diminish these problems in the public's eyes, as seen on Tuesday's nationwide broadcast of the prime minister.
In all earnesty, Tuesday's showing was just a continuation of the lies and deception by the Ethiopian government. The prime minister is known to blurt out some buffoonery. In his 70 minute interview, he had with Fana broadcasting, he bolstered fallacious claims, and I have chosen three to share with my readers:
Our government has laid the foundations for a free and fair democratic election
Firstly it is essential to state that general elections were supposed to be held in august 2020, which were postponed indefinitely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The postponement put Abiy and his party at loggerheads with major opposition parties, most notably TPLF and Gudina's OFC.
While it was PP that stood most to gain from the postponements, Abiy maintains, "Our party wanted to proceed with the elections no other political party had wanted the elections more than us [prosperity party]."
Many political parties had been showing frustration with the way Abiy was handling the electoral process. And finally, after consultations with representatives of the country's political parties, NEBE (National Election Board of Ethiopia) endorsed the postponement of the elections until after the end of the pandemic. As a result, the Ethiopian parliament's ill-justified postponement– undoubtedly – sowed the seeds for conflicts soon to come.
In June of 2020, after the unrest sparked by the death of famous Oromo singer Haccalu Hundessa, the government sought to clamp down on significant opposition. Prominent politicians and activists like Jawar Mohammed, Bekele Gerba, Hamza Borena, and thousands of other opposition party members in Oromia were incarcerated under anti-terrorism laws that designated opposition groups as terrorists. Gradually the current regime grew more confident in its authoritarian ways.
Not only are there thousands in detention across Oromia, but the two main political opposition parties in Oromia, Gudina's OFC and the OLA –parties that fought for independence and equality for the Oromia people – were forced to withdraw from the elections. Both parties claimed that their offices were at the receiving end of threats, leaving them with the option of dropping out of the election.
In Oromia, It is against this backdrop that elections were held on Monday. Many have questioned the integrity of the elections. Critics of the regime have called the idea of the election marking a significant departure from previous elections "laughable," especially with the fact that PP is running unchallenged in 60% of the electoral constituencies in Oromia.
While elections elsewhere proceeded pretty much peacefully, the notion that Monday's elections were free, free, and all-inclusive has taken a big dent. It is not precisely clear what Abiy meant when he answered, "we will hold democratic elections that fulfill all requirements." as he followed that up with - quite amazingly - "we want to hold elections that are freer and fairer. We can do this by cutting the mistakes made during past elections."
After hearing those lines, it may seem like Abiy wants a credible election, whose result will be accepted by the general public in Ethiopia, and is somewhat a better electoral process than previously observed elections. But, if the ruling party is setting its sights on democracy, previously accepted democratic yardsticks shouldn't be used to measure the palpability of the current elections.
Deranged football analogy
As many football lovers may know, there is a moment when the opposition is in a strong position to score. In this decisive moment, the defending team, or rather one particular player, must decide whether they should lunge in to make a last-ditch effort to save their team from conceding a goal; That is, committing a cynical foul against the attacking player.
Abiy used this analogy to help explain the precarious situation of Ethiopia. "In a game of football, you have two teams on the pitch. One team is enjoying the upper hand. So the team on the back foot has to be defensively tighter. If the players are defending against niggly, fast, and agile players, they have to win the ball inconspicuously while trying to disconcert them. But if the opposition is better in every way, the players' only chance is aggressively tackling the players, even if the referee is watching."
Maybe Abiy is hinting at something here. Perhaps he is implying that he is willing to go overboard on a multitude of issues in Ethiopia. It could be that the resources at his disposal are not enough to clear up the messy situation in Ethiopia, prompting his leadership into hasty decisions – a Ramos-Esque tackle.
This is most evident in the fact that Abiy's administration invited foreign forces into the country. To this day, Eritrean soldiers are in Tigray and Oromia, doing Abiy's bidding. As several observers and analysts have stated, their presence is unacceptable and goes against the country's territorial integrity. But to the group in Arat-kilo, their presence is important for the Ethiopian government to enforce the law in parts of the country.
To Abiy and his subordinates, the inimical agreement made with the despotic regime of Adi-Halo is one of those decisive moments for a defending player Abiy talked about in his interview. But, the decision to bring the Eritrean military and wreak havoc in Ethiopia has and will prove to be detrimental to the unity of Ethiopia.
Eritrean troops in Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray, helped Abiy secure his political aims; gain massive popularity across the country by quashing dissidents; crush the TPLF. But that 'lunge' - as he called it - will be costly.
In football, players are penalized for the fouls they commit, depending on whether the referee deems it worthy of a warning or a straight red card. The world has been watching the war in Tigray. The officials in Arat-kilo have been advised to stop the war and bring about a political solution. But calls by the international community to end the conflict haven't borne any fruit.
Perhaps, if the whole conundrum could be translated into the beautiful game: the nasty players are the belligerent invaders - who don't want to stop the war, while the refereeing part is pretty much the international community (mainly US and EU). Even though the referees are blowing the whistle for foul play, the nasty players persist with overstepping the rules of engagement to win at any cost.
No hunger in Tigray, there is unfettered humanitarian access for NGOs
On November 4 of last year, PM Abiy launched a military operation in Tigray after an alleged military base attack by the TPLF. The TPLF has now been fighting federal forces for the last seven-plus month in a war that has destroyed Tigray.
The war-torn region is now facing a man-made famine as fighting intensifies in many parts of the province. The UN and other international organizations have also reported very grave human rights violations.
USAID estimated that 900,000 people are currently living in famine conditions, with millions more at risk of facing starvation. The United Nations and other aid groups have warned that more than 350,000 could be facing famine earlier this month. "Conditions will worsen in the coming months, particularly as Tigray enters the July-to-September lean season unless humanitarian assistance reaches the populations most in need," the new USAID analysis says.
One might ask, "Why is aid not being provided into these areas?" it's because humanitarian access is curtailed in Tigray. Aid organizations have reported that aid is restricted from going to areas where it is needed most. This is intentionally being done by Ethiopian, Eritrean and Amhara troops in Tigray. But PM Abiy Ahmed said in his interview, "all Organizations have been allowed access into the most affected regions. Claims that there is famine in Tigray and that the government is using 'famine as a weapon of war' is unfounded." And there are reports that Eritrean troops are preventing farmers from farming.
Abiy told Ethiopians, "During the 1984 famine, the Woyanes used the hunger in Tigray to their advantage. International governments started asking for humanitarian corridors, which helped further their agenda by directly supporting the Woyanes by arming and training their soldiers."
PM Abiy is misleading the Ethiopian public by asserting that the TPLF started gaining ground in the 1980s only after the humanitarian corridor was opened. Playing on public dislike towards the TPLF, it's as if the prime minister is saying to his people: "if unfettered aid is allowed into Tigray, the TPLF will make a revival, and nobody in my country will want that to happen."
The famine in the 1980s killed more than one million people, and if we don't see a reverse of course by the Ethiopian government, the world could once again reckon with yet another famine in the horn-of-Africa nation.
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